There is not much to debate or worry about with the Astros at the moment. They can clinch the division later today with a Mariners loss to the Angels or a win over the Rays and they are well on their way to securing home field advantage throughout the American League postseason. As I have said many times and will continue to say moving forward, if you are an Astros fan, you are living with rich people problems.
With everything going well and roles carved out across the roster for the postseason, the only real debate can be made about how you put together your four man rotation and who, if any, of your starters end up in the bullpen. Let's run through how I think this thing plays out for your rotation.
1) Justin Verlander
There is not much to say as to why he is your one obviously. He has been your best pitcher all season long and is the clear front runner to win the Cy Young award for a third time in his career and second in Houston. His postseason track record is exceptional overall and whenever you hand him the ball, you feel like you are walking out of that game with a win.
2) Framber Valdez
His growth continues to impress as he has put up a monster season for the Astros all year long. Now with a streak of 25 consecutive quality starts, he has solidified himself as a top five Cy Young finisher at the very least. There will always be some traffic with Framber and the walks hopefully do not become too much of an issue in October, but when you go JV and Framber in games one and two, you feel like you are walking out of those games with a 2-0 series lead.
3) Lance McCullers Jr.
The Astros were so unsure of what they were going to get out of McCullers, if anything this season. He has returned from his injury and appears to be rounding into form at just the right time for the ball club. Some of you might look at this and say, how could you have him third when he has been out most of the season? It comes down to stuff and being, like Framber, a ground ball machine when he is right. Early in his return there have been far too many walks, but over his last couple of starts his stuff clearly looks so much sharper overall. His slider has really impressed me, and having that weapon to deploy against righties is a huge thing for his success. You will likely keep another one of your starters ready to piggyback him in any postseason start, but if the man is on his game, he can be just as good as the two guys ahead of him.
4) Cristian Javier
This is the spot where we have had debates this season, but as we close in on the end of the year, I believe this spot is pretty clear cut moving forward. Jose Urquidy had pitched his way into contention for it, but has had two really bad starts in a row versus two very bad teams. Luis Garcia pitched his way out of the mix here some time ago and Hunter Brown is still far too early in his career to throw into a start unless you absolutely need him to. Javier has been awesome for the club all season long and his ability to mow lineups down with his swing and miss stuff gives him a huge edge here. He has clearly been the Astros third best starter this season and you should not bat an eye at him pitching in front of McCullers in the postseason.
So what do you do with the rest of them? This is where things get tough. At the very least you have to put one of Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia and Hunter Brown in the bullpen, but the question is who? Do you knock two normal relievers out of your bullpen and deploy two guys in roles they are not accustomed to? That is a very tough thing to do in October. For me, right now I think that is the play. You go into a postseason series with two of these guys making a roster, knocking Will Smith and Phil Maton out of your bullpen. I highly doubt that this is what they will do, but this is how I would operate. Hunter Brown has wicked swing and miss stuff and I would be willing to roll the dice on him being in the 'pen. To give yourself a piggyback option for McCullers, I believe you have to go with Jose Urquidy at this moment despite his recent struggles. The decisions will not be easy for the Astros. Let the debate on how this will actually play out begin.