Connor: A Look At How This Strange Year Might Change The Astros Future

We are in a time with more uncertainty than any of us have seen before. For those of us that love sports, the uncertainty of when games might returns grows as each day goes by. While I should not have to state it, but in today's world you always have to state the obvious unfortunately. So to do that, the only thing that obviously matters right now is that the world does everything it can to flatten the curve of this virus and remain hopeful that people get and stay healthy before we get back to things like sports. The wait very well could end up being longer than we think and in the big picture of this thing called life, it does not matter how long our wait has to last, no matter how long it might go.

So with that said, with all of this free time on our hands, it has allowed us to sit and wonder many things aloud on how this might affect our favorite teams moving forward. Overall there is no true benefit to our world being shutdown like it is now, but the fact remains, there are some benefits that come from the world of sports being put on hold.

To start things here, we go to the benefits of a delayed start for the Astros. It of course feels wrong to look at how something like this has benefits, but there is no hiding it, this delay is helping many teams and the Astros are one of them.

1. The Noise

There is no denying it, baseball, like all the sports being on hold, has quieted a lot of the talk around teams throughout the sports world. The winter was rough and not fun for this franchise with the fallout from the sign stealing investigation and punishment/firings that resulted from it. This delayed start has no doubt put the talk on the back burner for now, and while it will come back up when games and specifically road trips happen for the ball club, you do have to think that once the games return, the flame behind all the vitriol the hate for the Astros across fan bases across the league will not be as loud as it would have been had the season started on time. The noise and distractions from what happen will come back when we are past it, but for now, this has clearly pushed the club to the back of peoples minds at the moment overall.

2. Rest/Workloads for 2020 Season

Every team is benefiting at the moment from their players getting more time to prepare or rehab injuries that might have already occurred in the spring that would have delayed the start of many big names across the league. For the Astros, the guy who is clearly benefiting most from this is Justin Verlander. Having turned 37 back in February, JV entered the spring with a heavier burden than he probably has ever had since landing in Houston back in 2017 with the Astros losing Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley via free agency this past winter. The level of expectation for the future hall of fame pitcher will always be extremely high and with the team banking on a strong return for Lance McCullers Jr. and the continued emergence of Jose Urquidy as well as the hope of Josh James grabbing control of the fifth spot in the rotation, the Astros need JV to continue his dominance on the mound moving forward. His groin became an issue early in the spring and than the issue with his triceps muscle popped up, he and the team decided it was best to have a procedure done on the groin early in this delay to the season, projecting that it would be a six week rehab before he could return. Now, if a season does get played, he is clearly back on the radar to start for the Astros whenever opening day hopefully occurs. Since joining the Astros in 2017, Verlander has logged 560.1 innings pitched across 88 starts, 87 of which have been starts, when you combine his regular season and postseason work. That is a ton of innings and clearly there is a huge benefit to a lessened workload this season for the 37 year old.

Yordan Alvarez is the next Astros player to clearly benefit from this time unexpected time off after being forced to sit out spring games with not one, but both knees barking at him. It is a scary thought to think that a guy that young at just 22 years old is having knee issues already, but it is just something that the Astros will always have to account for moving forward. Yordan will turn 23 in June and with the knee issues still hanging around, getting time off now should clearly make it easier for him to play for this team from the jump whenever the season might get going. He was always destined to be a designated hitter for most of his big league career and moving forward, you have to wonder how much, if at all, he ever plays the field for this team. His bat is clearly the most important thing for both he and this franchise, it is scary to think that he might only get better at the plate moving forward. The team really would benefit most if he could occasionally be used in the field, giving them the ability to use the DH spot as place to get guys off their feet from playing the field, but his bat is too good to take away too many games from him for this team moving forward. Hopefully the rest is helping him tremendously and when games return, he can be used some in left field when the team feels he is ready for such work.

Lance McCullers Jr. becomes the next most obvious beneficiary of a delayed start to the season as he returns from the Tommy John surgery he had following the 2018 season. There was always going to an innings limitation on him in the regular season and while there still should be one, if the season is shortened to say, 100 or so games, you clearly are more likely to get a full season out of McCullers provided his health stands up.

Those guys more than any clearly benefit the most from the sports world being put on pause, like many other teams, including the biggest threats for the Astros this year, this chance to rest might change the outcomes for so many this season if games are able to be played. Now, we move on to the worst case scenarios and long term of affects of what a completely lost 2020 season could mean specifically for this Astros team.

To the other and more detailed side of things, we go to the question marks and tough decisions this will bring to the franchise with a shortened season or if the worst case scenario hits where a season is not played at all.

1. Lost Years of Player Control

With the agreement in place between the league and players association that no matter how many games if any will not affect a players big league service time, a lost season, like for so many teams, will probably hurt the Astros more than it would help. Here are the players that are set to become free agents after this year, no matter if games are played or not.

• Josh Reddick
• George Springer
• Michael Brantley
• Yuli Gurriel
• Brad Peacock

Josh Reddick:

In a perfect world, where the market this past winter was not filled with many solid outfield free agents, the Astros would have probably shipped Reddick out in hopes of avoiding having to pay all, if not most of his 13 million dollars owed in the final year of his four year contract. Given that the market overall was flush with many serviceable veteran outfield bats, the market for a guy that does not carry the biggest weight at the plate with his bat given his yearly salary, was just never going to be that deep. Keeping Reddick overall for the final year of his deal is no problem overall when it comes to the big picture of this team. While he, like the team, would love if he played closer to his 2017 level of production, the track record while here in Houston clearly puts you in a place where you hope he lands somewhere between that 2017 version of himself and the level he played at overall, a year ago. Being able to ship out his money this past winter would have eased your potential luxury tax bill, the benefits of having the veteran still on this team likely outweigh the benefits of not having him here in 2020. After shipping out Jake Marisnick and with the team banking on the youngsters in Kyle Tucker and Myles Straw to carry some of the outfield load, Reddick provides a great luxury of having been there and doing it all before. While at best at the plate he is a slightly above league average player, the insurance he provides both at the plate and in the field could be vital if Kyle Tucker does not take another leap forward.

With all three regulars in the Astros outfield being set for free agency at years end, with two of those three guys clearly being way more expensive moving forward than Josh will be, writing off his Astros career after this season is not something anyone should do. In all likelihood, he is a guy that lands somewhere in the range of 4-8 million dollars next season for whoever he plays for, with the Astros unlikely to keep all three of their current group in the outfield, his affordability and dependability put him in play to return to the Astros after this season ends, if games are played at all.

George Springer:

This is the trickiest and most potentially most painful spot the Astros are in, if the worst case scenario hits, and games are not played this season. George is the lifeblood of this team on the field and in the clubhouse and in his career he has skyrocketed to a place that most players do not reach when it comes to value for a team. Potentially playing most of this season at the age of 30, he will turn 31 in September and history tells us that it is harder for guys over 30 landing the huge deal they would want given his age and history of injuries in his career. He and the team were able to settle at 21 million dollars this season for his pay and despite his age, on the open market, it is hard to imagine a scenario where he does not land a deal that puts his yearly average at less than 20 million a year. The task of making a decision on George's future with the club is truly the trickiest task on the plate of their new general manager, James Click.

If what we all do not want happens, and that of course is George leaving Houston after the 2020 season happens, it will not be something that make fans gush for their new GM. George matters to the people of Houston and so many want to see him be like a Biggio or Bagwell and finish his career only wearing this one uniform. While I remain optimistic that George will continue in the outfield for the Astros moving forward, you have to wonder just how likely that scenario is given again, his age and history of injuries in his past. The franchise is in such a tricky place on all decisions like the one they will have to make with George, with a potentially shortened MLB Draft this summer and the team already down their first two picks in each of the next two drafts, the best thing to keep their window of success open moving forward, is for the team to extend further into luxury tax penalties over the next few years to keep guys like George due to the fact that their system has been depleted over the last few years and now has the inability to boost it early in the next two draft. Jim Crane will have to bite the bullet and pony up some big luxury tax bills moving forward, but again, to win in the next few years, this is what most likely has to be done. 

I have battled with what I think a new deal looks like for George if he and the Astros are able to get something done. Best case scenario for the team might see his new deal land somewhere between three and five seasons at a total number probably landing anywhere between 60 and 150 million dollars. It only takes one team to extend his number further than what the Astros might want, and the fear of losing his big time production should only help George's negotiating power when the time finally does arrive to land his new deal.

Michael Brantley:

This delay and potential lost season might hurt Brantley's future earning power more than it helps him when he officially becomes a free agent once again. His signing last season was a massive win as he paid off for the club in a big way, having what might have been his best overall season in his stellar career. Earning his third straight All-Star Game appearance and fourth overall in his career in 2019, the 16 million he played for last year felt like a steal overall. That number staying the same again this season in the final year of his 32 million dollar deal still feels like a huge win. Playing this season at the age of 34 and with his past injury struggles as well, Brantley is not going to be landing a deal that reaches more than three years in my opinion. The question with Brantley is how rich might his market be if games are not played this season. His track record says he is no less than a 15 million dollar a year guy, but with a loss of this season and revenue for every team, given his age and injury history, not playing games in 2020 will very likely hurt is earning power moving forward. If games do occur, no matter how many, if he stays healthy and produces at a similar level as he did a year ago, he likely will not be hurt when it comes to how much he lands in his next deal. I believe if you gave James Click and the Astros some truth serum, they would tell you that they would be pleased and comfortable with giving Michael another two year deal close to that 32 million dollar number he landed just one winter ago. 

While his production at the plate and in the field will not match what you get from George Springer, his affordability compared to George might make him the more likely of the two to stick in Houston moving forward. Going back to his age, playing this season at 34 and given his history of injuries in his career, it brings to mind where he might play for the Astros if he and the team come to an agreement that keeps him in Houston for years to come. Last winter when he signed in Houston he made it a point to say he was willing to play wherever they need him and even said that he would be willing to work at first base if that is what the team needed him to do. With Yuli Gurriel set to become a free agent at seasons end as well, you have to wonder if the Astros consider bringing Brantley back with the plan of moving him to first base and letting Yuli go. 

Yuli Gurriel:

Having a career year in 2019, the track record and age for Mr. Reliable at first base say that his 2019 season at the plate will be the best he ever has. Analytics and projections for a player that will play this season mostly at the age of 36, most likely will tell you that he is more likely to decline moving forward than he is likely to replicate his massive 2019 season. But like the guys above, Yuli means so much for this franchise currently and possibly moving forward. The Astros have a potential replacement in the system with the late bloomer that is Taylor Jones, if Yuli's price tag is too rich for their liking this winter, Jones could find himself penciled in as his replacement if he is able to continue his growth after stellar 2019 season at the plate in Triple-A. If the Astros are not comfortable with Jones being given a chance to be their future at first base, Yuli most likely will not be out of their price range if they are not able to secure a new deal for George Springer. A long term agreement between George and the club will have a trickle down affect on their current and future spending, not signing George to new deal might provide more long term stability for the team and give them the flexibility to bring back more players than they could if they are able to get something done. Both Yuli and Michael Brantley become more likely to return in my view if the team and George are unable to get something done for the long term. Learning and playing first base as well as Yuli has done is no small task, if he is not there for the Astros moving forward, his replacement at the position will have big shoes to fill. Retaining Yuli's services should not take more than a one or two year deal and if he regresses closer to his previous numbers than he put up in 2019, you would think that a two year deal in the range of 18-24 million dollars should be in play for the club.

Brad Peacock:

Not playing games this season would hurt the Astros jack of all trades on their pitching staff. He has meant a ton to the franchise as both a starter and a reliever over the last few seasons, his versatility is something that teams should drool for on the open market. But like some of the guys above, there is a history of injury with Brad and he was already dealing with a neck issue early this spring that ended any thought that he would be used as a starter once the season got underway. With two plus pitches and three that are above average, his arsenal is something that plays in both a bullpen and starters role. Making 3.9 million this season, if games are played and he is able to put up a big season at the age of 32, Peacock will find himself as likely one of the more coveted arms on the market with the best view of his value likely being as a reliever than a starter moving forward. The Astros would be smart to put an emphasis on retaining his services no matter what, but again, if games are played and Peacock pitches extremely well, he could price himself out of the Astros comfort zone to keep him in an Astros uniform. Signing him as a bullpen arm should see his next deal land somewhere in the two to four year range for me, at a total number in the high teens to low twenty million range for me.

To the next layer of the Astros future spending and player control now, let's take a look at players that will be entering their final year of arbitration or final year of their deals in 2021.

• Zack Greinke (Final Year of Deal)
• Justin Verlander (Final Year of Deal)
• Joe Smith (Final Year of Deal)
• Martin Maldonado (Final Year of Deal)
• Roberto Osuna (Final Year of Arbitration)
• Carlos Correa (Final Year of Arbitration)
• Lance McCullers Jr. (Final Year of Arbitration)
• Chris Devenski (Final Year of Arbitration)

Zack Greinke:

The Astros trading for Greinke looks even more important now than it did before. For the 2020 season, again, if there is one, his importance for this franchise in 2020 ramps up even more with the departures of Cole and Miley and the question marks at the back end of the rotation entering this year. Despite his continued tick down over the years in terms of velocity, Greinke continues to pitch at a Cy Young level year in and year out. While his fastball velocity ticked slight back up in 2019, you move forward with Greinke knowing that he is always going to be a guy that relies on his deception and defense more so than the power arms that have flooded Major League Baseball as the game continues to evolve. Greinke is the unicorn of today's game and while many will always live with the concern that one day his brilliance on the mound will come to a crashing quickly, until or if that happens, his track record should be what really does affect the way you view him moving forward. On the books overall for 70 million overall in this season and next, the Astros are paying Zack around 49 million overall for this season and next. Like Verlander, pitching this season at an advanced age in today's game, he will become a free agent again after pitching the 2021 season at the age of 37. Neither guy is clearly ever landing a long term deal again, if Greinke's production continues at the same level it did in 2019, landing a two year deal, even at the age of 37, should not be hard to do.

With all of the tricky decisions and lack of big time future arms near the top of the Astros system, extending into luxury tax land in the future to keep Greinke around should his production warrant it, should be a priority for the Astros moving forward. Where his next potential deal lands is a question mark of course, but again, if the production and dependability to remains the same, it is hard to see him not landing a deal that averages less than 20 million dollars a year no matter how long his next contract might be. While you would probably love to go forward on a year to year basis with him, to retain his services after next season you most likely have to guarantee him a two year deal as long as he want to continue his big league career.

Justin Verlander: 

Since landing Verlander in 2017, the Astros have had one of the best bargains in baseball over the last couple of seasons when it comes to what they paid for the elite level of production that he has given them. Ahead of last season, despite his age and career workload, the team was smart to give him the two year extension that put him on a yearly average that pays him what his standing in the game is worth. With the bargain of only having to pay 20 million of his 28 owed in each of the last two seasons behind them, his jump to 33 million a year for this season and next makes doing other deals trickier than it had been in his first two full seasons here. Despite the current injury, his track record speaks for itself, when he takes the mound to start a season, you pencil him in to be among the league leaders in just about every category as he has done his entire time in Houston. Despite pitching this season at 37 and next season at 38, it is still a good bet to put money on Verlander contending for a Cy Young Award every season moving forward. While he might not live in the 96-99 miles per hour range with his fastball anymore, his 94-96 is more than capable of sticking around and being lethal moving forward. While you always have to wonder in the back of your mind with an arm with the career workload he has, you never have to wonder about JV doing everything he can to continue fight off father time and pitch at a high level for years moving forward. 

Losing this season is going to hurt many players and teams who will not get production out of many of the future free agents in the game, not having a season this year will be hard pill to swallow knowing that you are paying Verlander so much this season. You want to get everything you can out of a guy that is making 33 million dollars a season, but the world right now is clearly not concerned with stuff like this. If Verlander continues at this elite level this season and next, he like Greinke, will want to be paid accordingly for their elite production despite their advanced age. In an open market, if both pitchers throw to their Cy Young form, they absolutely would not be wrong to want at least 30 million for the 2022 season. While of course you do not want to pay that much, given the trickle down affect of so much listed above, you could find yourself having to extend a bit to with both of these pitchers to keep your high end window open moving forward. If the level of his production continues at what it has been in his time with the Astros, you very well could be looking at another two year deal for Verlander that pays him between 30 and 35 million a year. Would he consider doing the team a favor at his advanced age and take a team friendly deal to aid them in keeping others? The safest answer to that question is of course is no, as he made it a point to wanting top of the market average value on this deal to benefit of course his current and future earnings, also setting a standard for what other players at his level get paid moving forward. His value now and in the future remains eminence for the franchise, should he continue his stellar level of pitching, his negotiating power should should only grow moving forward.

Joe Smith:

Keeping Smith for this years bullpen was a must and getting him back at half of his previous number was a huge win for the team as they watched Will Harris move on. On the books for four million dollars this season and next, he is a very affordable and reliable arm that successful bullpens must have each season in order to contend. As long as he continues to pitch well this season and next, his earning power should remain in the range it is now and he will still present a very affordable piece if the Astros want to continue their partnership with him when he becomes a free agent again after the 2021 season.

Martin Maldonado:

Like Smith, Maldonado's future is not one that you lose sleep over given that you feel you can find similar production wherever you might look for comparable players for your ballclub. Martin is obviously a well below average hitter and will become a free agent again after the 2021 season at the age of 36. Keeping him if that is the route you decide to go after next season will not be difficult, his market overall is never going to be rich despite his stellar work with a pitching staff and elite type of production he can give you behind the plate even as he continues to age. Defensive metrics might not love him as much as they have in the past, judging his work, for me, comes more so with the good ole fashion eye test. His arm is elite behind the plate and while he clearly does not move around back there at the same level that his arm does, his defensive work overall is something that a team with a lineup that is so loaded like the Astros can live with each season. He is a year to year type of player and if he is not the primary catcher at some point in either of the seasons of his current deal, you will not lose any sleep paying him what you do for the stability he brings to your pitching staff. The Astros system has been catcher poor for years and last years first round pick, Korey Lee has a real opportunity in front of him to shoot through the system quickly and be the primary catcher sooner rather than later if his production at the minor league level is worthy. While a team at the Astros level is always going to lean toward a reliable veteran presence behind the plate that is counted on more than anything for their defense, the franchise needs Lee to give them reason for hope that their next long term catcher can be him while supplementing him with a veteran like Maldonado.

Roberto Osuna:

Entering his final year of arbitration after this year, when his time comes to hit the free agent market, Osuna is set to become a very rich man despite his checkered past during his time in Toronto. Elite level stuff and production in his career, he is one of the games best closers this year and should remain that moving forward. Making 10 million dollars this season at the age of just 25, his final raise in arbitration should land him somewhere between that 10 million and the 15 million dollar mark for the 2021 season. Osuna is a very tricky decision for the Astros moving forward. To be an elite level team each and every season, you must have a guy you can count on at the end of games to win as much as the Astros have. Paying a closer 15 million dollars or more a season is not what is best for the health of a teams payroll, but that gets thrown to the side for many teams that are either in a spot the Astros are already in or if they are a team that is clearly one piece away from making a leap by having a back end arm like his. 

With all of the other decisions that must be made for this team with the other guys that we have already gone through, I believe that this season could very well be the last for Osuna in Houston. His trade value after this year, despite only having one year left of control, should be huge. We see it year after year, teams will cave and pay a hefty price for a back end bullpen arm like his. He has come to Houston and been insanely productive, leading baseball in saves a year ago, he has brought back his trade value by keeping himself in good standing by having no issues after his domestic violence situation he was in when the Astros surprised many by trading for him in the middle of his suspension in 2018. Production in sports trumps so much and even with his past, Osuna is going to at worst, one of the three highest paid closers in baseball on a yearly average with his next deal. If the Astros are comfortable with handing his duties to Ryan Pressly after this season while others pick up his spot as one of the best setup guys in the game, Osuna will likely become a luxury for the team moving forward and without the ability to restock their system at a high level for the next two years, a haul in return for his services after this season will clearly come into play. 

Given how young he is and how high his level of production has been, Osuna should be set to make no less than 50 million in terms of the overall value of his next deal, the most likely outcome being that he lands closer to the record type of deals that Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman and Wade Davis have landed in the past. In terms of average annual value, Davis leads the market at over 17 million dollars a season, with four current closers averaging over 15 million a season, it is hard to see a scenario where Osuna does not land over 15 million a year on average in his next deal. The closer market is lining up to benefit Osuna massively after the 2021 season, being just 26 years old at that time, he will clearly have the most leverage in what will be a very thin market overall despite having guys like Jansen and Davis in it. 

Carlos Correa:

I keep saying that each of the players listed above provides a tricky decision for the club moving forward, but truly, no situation provides more question marks than the one that Correa's future presents. Going to the worst case scenario again of there being no baseball in 2020, if that scenario hits, making a decision on his future will become even more difficult than it is for the club right now. The track record for Correa says that he is not a guy you can count on to stay healthy unfortunately and all of the injuries have clearly kept him from putting up the type of numbers that his level of talent should put up. In 2017, in the first half of the season, he finally looked like he was set to boom more than he had before. Setting the world on fire as a rookie in 2015, the debates instantly began about just how much much his future mega deal would cost. After that 2015 season that ended at the ripe age of 21, he looked to be set for one of the biggest contracts baseball had ever seen when his time came. 2016 was okay overall, but not to the overall level we threw on his expectations following his burst into to stardom in 2015. Like I stated, it appeared that the MVP level hype was finally coming after an incredible first half in 2017 that led to his one and only selection to an All-Star team in his career. Had he remained healthy that season and continued producing at the same rate he did before the break, he very well could have found himself taking home the MVP award. 2018 was a lost cause overall thanks to the back injuries and his numbers suffering severely at the plate, 2019 was better overall for his numbers as hitter, but overall was much more of the same as the year before with his continued battle to stay on the field.

Having games played this season this season, for Correa, might matter more than any player who is creeping towards free agency and having it be as close to a full season as possible is nearly as important as just playing any games at all. His inability to play a full season has hurt his high end of future earnings massively, having just one season with 150 plus games played, while not playing more than 110 games in any of his other full big league seasons. If his numbers at the plate had been the around the same level of his shortened 2017 season, in the other years where he struggled to stay healthy, his ability to land the massive deal might not have been affected as much as it has with his up and down numbers during seasons that he has failed to stay on the field.

The biggest question for whoever gives Correa a big deal is clearly the health. If he plays a full season in a year that will most likely be shortened, can you really rest easily and say you are comfortable that he can play a full season multiple times moving forward? The obvious answer is to that question is no, but any team can be fooled and if he plays at an MVP type of level, he is the type of guy that someone can justify going way over the top for.

So let's play the what if game for Correa now and we start at his best case scenario. If we played a full 162 game season this year and he played 150 plus games and hit near these 162 game averages for his big league career, how much would he land as a free agent?

162 game average for his career:

BA: .277

HR: 30

RBI: 110 

OBP: .356

SLG: .489

OPS: .845

If Correa played this season and next and spent the majority of each of those seasons healthy, and say playing at least that number of 150 games in each of the next two seasons, he would enter the free agent market at the age of 27 and likely be the most sought after player on the market that winter. For comparisons sake, if Correa played a season with those numbers and at his age when hitting the free agent market, it is hard to imagine him not landing a deal close to and most likely for more than the deal that the Padres gave Manny Machado ahead of the 2019 season. The Padres signed Machado, who had moved back to shortstop for the 2018 season after spending the majority of his career at third, to a 10 year deal for 300 million dollars. Here is what Machado's career 162 game averages look like. Machado has played three more seasons than Correa and became a free agent at year younger than Correa will be when he hits the market.

162 game average for his career:

BA: .279

HR: 31

RBI: 90

OBP: .335

SLG: .483

OPS: .818

As you can see, the 162 game averages for their careers are about as similar as you can get. Now of course Machado had the benefit that Correa has not had, being vastly more reliable when it comes to playing a full season, playing 150 or more games in five seasons before hitting the market. If Correa had the same health fortune as Machado and with both players hitting the market at a prime age, Correa would see himself most likely landing north of that 300 million dollar number that Machado got from San Diego. Both players at the plate are dynamic, MVP type of hitters and defensively, both are complete studs. The Padres of course signed Manny knowing that they would slide him back to third. Correa has played all of his career at short and has made it very well known that he has no intention of sliding over to third like many have always thought he one day will have to do. We all know that money talks and if Correa's biggest offer comes from a team that wants him to slide over to third, that is probably what he would do. 

So based off that comparison with Machado and teams liking him more than Machado if you consider the at times question marks for Manny when it comes to his character and work ethic, Correa would be the more coveted of the two if both were together on an open market with both being healthy more often than not. But health is where this all leads back to. Plain and simple, based on what we know, you cannot count on Carlos being a guy that ever makes it through a season healthy and given that he has already had such bad back issues early in his career, there is no way you can convince any logical thinking person that his history with that injury alone will ever get better as he ages. 

Now let's play the game of worst case scenario. If Correa were only able to play around 110 games a season in each of the next two seasons, if of course we had two full seasons, it is reasonable to believe that his overall number compared to that deal that Machado landed, might struggle to reach half of the overall total that he got from San Diego. And again, if in his shortened seasons he put up 2017 type of numbers from that shortened year, he could probably hit the market knowing that he would probably find a team that would guarantee him at least 200 million in his first big deal.

There are plenty of positives that could come for the Astros based off his track record and what his negotiating power might be given that this could be a shortened that will not answer the biggest lingering question with him, but overall, for me, there are far more negatives that come with all the question marks surrounding him for the Astros as they creep near a crucial decision on him for the franchise moving forward.

Mucking all of this game of wondering how much and how many teams could be going after Correa hard when he hits the market is the fact that as we sit here today, he will be entering that free agent market in what today looks like might be the deepest free agent maket in the history of the game. At this moment, here are the other shortstops that are set to hit the free agent market after the 2021 season.

• Francisco Lindor (Cleveland Indians)
• Trevor Story (Colorado Rockies)
• Corey Seager (Los Angeles Dodgers)
• Javier Baez (Chicago Cubs)
• Brandon Crawford (San Francisco Giants)

Just that list alone makes Correa's landing his mega deal a daunting task alone. If all of those names do hit the open market, at this moment it is hard to see him landing a better deal than at least three players on that list and possibly a fourth. Like we did with Machado, let's compare the 162 game averages for the careers of each player that is listed above.

• Correa: .277 BA, 30 HR, 110 RBI, .356 OBP, .489 SLG, .845 OPS
• Lindor: .288 BA, 29 HR, 87 RBI, .347 OBP, .493 SLG, .840 OPS
• Story: .276 BA, 37 HR, 123 RBI, .341 OBP, .537 SLG, .878 OPS
• Seager: .294 BA, 24 HR, 88 RBI, .362 OBP, .491 SLG, .853 OPS
• Baez: .270 BA, 27 HR, 86 RBI, .310 OBP, .484 SLG, .794 OPS
• Crawford: .249 BA, 13 HR, 69 RBI, .316 OBP, .389 SLG, .706 OPS

Continuing the comparisons for Correa to the players on this list, here is the age that these guys will play most of, if not all, of 2022.

• Correa: 27
• Lindor: 29
• Story: 29
• Seager: 28
• Baez: 29
• Crawford: 35

To finish the comparisons here, we go to the list of accolades for each player so far in their careers.

• Correa: 5 seasons, 1x All-Star, 2015 AL Rookie of the Year, 1x World Series Champion
• Lindor: 5 seasons, 4x All-Star, 2x Silver Slugger, 2x Gold Glove, 1x Platinum Glove
• Story: 4 seasons, 2x All-Star, 2x Silver Slugger
• Seager: 5 seasons, 2x All-Star, 2x Silver Slugger, 2016 NL Rookie of the Year
• Baez: 6 seasons, 2x All-Star, 1x Silver Slugger, 1x World Series Champion, 2016 NLCS MVP
• Crawford: 9 seasons, 2x All-Star, 3x Gold Glove, 1x Silver Slugger, 2x World Series Champion

If every single guy on this list hits the free agent market, Carlos Correa is very likely to walk away with a deal that is well below what he might have envisioned he could land when his career got started. At this moment, for me, I do not think he will land a deal that will be larger than the deals that Lindor and Baez land for sure and if Seager bounces back after working through coming back from Tommy John last season, Scott Boras will make it tough for Correa to top his number as well. Trevor Story is the mos interesting guy of this group for a few reasons. While Correa is the youngest of this group and two years younger than Story specifically, he has put up high end seasons at the plate that of this group come the closest to the clear leader of this class in Lindor.

The question with Story, like any other Rockies free agent, is will he be dinged by the 'Coors Effect'? There is no way to deny it, guys put up insane numbers in that ballpark and being a guy that does strikeout a lot, does this 'Coors Effect' inflate his batting average each year and if he's not close to his lifetime number, how far will that batting average go when he is not playing his home games at altitude? To this point of his big league career, he is a lifetime .304 hitter at home, while hitting just .250 on the road. Very few have ever defied the 'Coors Effect' rule...but the writing on the wall is clear here, Story clearly falls on the side of feeling this benefit than most. Even with that taken into your thought process, his power is still very real and huge, and it very well could be the best of any of the guys in this class. If Correa does not boom and boom big over the next two seasons and if Story continues to post seasons close to his last two, it very well could be difficult for Carlos to surpass a deal that Story gets as well.

To make things worse for Correa as part of this free agent class, if he wanted to boost his stock within it, he could market himself as being open to playing third base, but if he were to do that, it might not help his value as much as you would imagine. Like Correa, others in this class to do the same, specifically Story, Seager and Baez, all of whom like Correa, are bigger shortstops that many have always thought will eventually need to move to third. So you add that factor into this class with those guys, you move to the list of free agent third baseman that will be on the market after that 2021 season. That list could include.

• Nolan Arenado (Colorado Rockies) (31 years old, can opt out of contract following 2021 season)
• Kris Bryant (Chicago Cubs) (30 years old)
• Jose Ramirez (Cleveland Indians) (29 years old, unlikely to hit market, Indians hold team option for 2022 at 11 million dollars)
• Kyle Seager (Seattle Mariners) (34 years old, likely to hit market, Mariners hold 15 million dollar team option for 2022, with small buyout)

In all likelihood, all four of these guys do not hit the open market and it might be more likely that only one of these guys (Seager) actually does make it to free agency. If Arenado is not traded to a place that he wants to go ahead of the opt-out in his deal, it feels pretty safe that he will exercise that clause to get out of a place that he clearly no longer wants to be. For Bryant, his situation very likely depends on who the Cubs prefer in keeping, either him or Javier Baez. Right now, Baez is probably the safe pick because he is slightly younger and has been healthier in recent years than Bryant has. Bryant of course might not hit the market if the Cubs go ahead and trade him before his free agency comes and you would have to think that a team trading for him would like to retain his services long-term. Ramirez clearly has no chance of hitting the market with his insanely team friendly options for both 2022 and 2023, but you have to put him on the list because he technically could be part of it if the Indians got dumb or he just completely fell apart. 

Arenado presents a very interesting wrinkle to this potentially loaded free agent class. If the Rockies are dumb, they will not move him and watch him opt-out of his deal and get nothing in return. If they are smart they move him sooner rather than later, but doing so will not be easy. Most teams willing to pull the trigger on giving up the haul it will take to get him will likely only do so with assurances that he is not coming and opting out of the deal or will opt-out with a handshake agreement that he will only be doing so to sign a new deal. With a full no-trade clause, Arenado holds the power here and will likely end up in a place that he is willing to stay long-term. The team trading for him can always request that he agrees to take the opt-out clause out of his deal, guaranteeing that they will have him through the 2026 season, a year that he will play at the age of 35. If he were to opt-out after next season, Arenado would be leaving five guaranteed seasons on the table at a total of 164 million dollars. While he is one of the best in the league and would be one of the most sought after players on the market, with it being such a deep class, it could be difficult to land a deal that would average better than the 32.8 million per year average the last five years of his current deal lands him, that also has award bonuses written in that could push the total value even higher than it stands right now. While the 'Coors Effect' will be something that teams question with him, just like they will with Trevor Story, he should not feel as much of a cloud with that as his current teammate will. Of course there is another layer to the Arenado angle on this market, if the Rockies due the smart thing and ship him out and he stays wherever they send him to, will they pivot and give Story a big deal before he hits free agency, taking two big bats off the market before that wild winter even gets going.

Trying to put a wrap on all of these scenarios that are in play that should have some sort of affect on Correa and his market, I cannot finish this portion of the blog without getting to a couple of more layers to this story. In the worst case scenario of their being no baseball in 2020 and teams losing out on a lot of their normal guaranteed revenues, how much will this hurt players in this market after the 2021 season with teams possibly less flexible to hand out massive deals? Will lingering deadline for a new labor deal also play a role and could new rules in a new CBA also affect the way teams can spend in the future? These two questions are ones that we might not have much of an answer to for some time. And with two major question marks like those, might they motivate many players that are included in this free agent class to lock in long term deals now, rather than waiting things out with so many uncertainties across the industry moving forward? There is no doubt that players, agents and teams have already run through all of these countless scenarios multiple times already.

One final factor that could hurt players in the shortstop category, and specifically Correa, could also be the potential free agents after the upcoming 2020 league year, as well as the class that will hit the market following the 2022 season. Here are some of the names of note at the shortstop position that will hit the market in each of those two years.

Free agents after 2020 season:

• Marcus Semien (Oakland A's)
• Didi Gregorius (Philadelphia Phillies)
• Andrelton Simmons (Los Angeles Angels)
• Freddy Galvis (Cincinnati Reds)

Free agents after the 2022 season:

• Elvis Andrus (Texas Rangers) (Team Option for 2023 season at 15 million dollars)
• Tim Anderson (Chicago White Sox) (Team Option for 2023 season at 12.5 million dollars)
• Dansby Swanson (Atlanta Braves)
• Orlando Arcia (Milwaukee Brewers)
• Trea Turner (Washington Nationals)

Here is the list of potential free agents of note at third base for the same years as listed above.

 Free agents after 2020 season: 

• Justin Turner (Los Angeles Dodgers)
• Marwin Gonzalez (Minnesota Twins) (Twins have used him at third base more than any other infield position)
• Jonathan Villar (Miami Marlins)
• Maikel Franco (Kansas City Royals) 

 Free agents after the 2022 season:  

• Matt Carpenter (St. Louis Cardinals)
• Evan Longoria (San Francisco Giants) (Team Option for 2023 season at 13 million dollars)
• Kyle Seager (Seattle Mariners) (If 2022 team option is picked up, free agent after that season)
• Jose Ramirez (Cleveland Indians) (Team Option for 2023 season at 13 million dollars)

So looking at all of these flooded markets for the two positions on the left side of the diamond, it will be vital for Carlos Correa to have a massive season this year, no matter how many games might be played, and of course a follow up year in 2021 that is just as good will be required if he wants to see himself land one of the biggest deals in a free agent class following that 2021 season that is as loaded of one as baseball has seen before. Examining the others in this potentially massive free agent class, there are multiple players that will be looking for huge deals outside of the guys listed already at shortstop and third base. Some of the other names of note that will be part of Correa's group of free agents include:

Will be free agents barring extensions signed ahead of free agency:

• Zack Greinke (Houston Astros)
• Justin Verlander (Houston Astros)
• Roberto Osuna (Houston Astros)
• Lance McCullers (Houston Astros)
• Joe Smith (Houston Astros)
• Martin Maldonado (Houston Astros)
• Chris Devenski (Houston Astros)
• Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers)
• Max Scherzer (Washington Nationals)
• John Lester (Chicago Cubs)
• Ryan Braun (Milwaukee Brewers)
• Carlos Santana (Cleveland Indians)
• Wade Davis (Colorado Rockies)
• J.A. Happ (New York Yankees)
• Freddie Freeman (Atlanta Braves)
• Khris Davis (Oakland A's)
• Dexter Fowler (St. Louis Cardinals)
• Kenley Jansen (Los Angeles Dodgers)
• Charlie Morton (Tampa Bay Rays)
• Alex Cobb (Baltimore Orioles)
• Andrew Miller (St. Louis Cardinals)
• Brett Gardner (New York Yankees)
• Edwin Encarnacion (Chicago White Sox)
• David Robertson (Philadelphia Phillies)
• Avisail Garcia (Chicago White Sox)
• Lance Lynn (Texas Rangers)
• Adam Ottavino (New York Yankees)
• Corey Kluber (Texas Rangers)
• Brad Hand (Cleveland Indians)
• Anthony Rizzo (Chicago Cubs)
• Starling Marte (Arizona Diamondbacks)
• Adam Eaton (Washington Nationals)
• Chris Archer (Pittsburgh Pirates)

Those listed above is just a small scratch at the surface of this potentially deep class. The list of players of note grows when you go to players that have option years that if they are not exercised, will join this class. Those of note include:

• Nolan Arenado (Colorado Rockies) (Player Option)
• Giancarlos Stanton (New York Yankees) (Player Option)
• Jake Arrieta (Philadelphia Phillies) (Team Option)
• J.D. Martinez (Boston Red Sox) (Player Option)
• Johnny Cueto (San Francisco Giants) (Team Option)
• Buster Posey (San Francisco Giants) (Team Option)
• Charlie Blackmon (Colorado Rockies) (Player Option)
• Andrew McCutchen (Philadelphia Phillies) (Team Option)
• Nick Castellanos (Cincinnati Reds) (Player Option)
• Yusei Kikuchi (Seattle Mariners) (Team Option)
• Kyle Seager (Seattle Mariners) (Team Option)
• Ian Desmond (Colorado Rockies) (Team Option)
• Zack Britton (New York Yankees) (Team Option)
• Carlos Martinez (St. Louis Cardinals) (Team Option)
• Joe Kelly (Los Angeles Dodgers) (Team Option)
• Kole Calhoun (Arizona Diamondbacks) (Team Option)
• Jose Ramirez (Cleveland Indians) (Team Option)

Again, this is just scratching the surface of who could be part of this class and of course, all of these names will not make it to free agency that year, but it paints a picture of how many guys could be out there and this could lead to some very good names possibly landing deals at much lower amount than they probably envision for themselves. 

With all of this taken into account, the flooded market and the other question marks around the game with the upcoming end of the current CBA and how loss of revenues this season could hurt teams ability to spend, this could end up being very beneficial for the Astros if they decide that locking Correa up is what they want to do. Might he look at this deep class after this season and say, okay, let's start talking about an extension now before any games get played in 2021 or will he stay the course and bank on his eminence talent in hopes of booming in a big way over the next couple of seasons, leading to him landing the type of money that he has always envisioned himself landing?

It is going to be very interesting to see how all of this plays out for the Astros and Correa. When he arrived in 2015, there was no doubt that they had dreams of he and Jose Altuve being the next Bagwell/Biggo duo for the franchise. With all of the questions that have popped up due to his health issues and the rise of the likes of Bregman and Springer, maybe the next duo viewed in the likes Bagwell and Biggio is most likely to be Altuve and Bregman given that both are locked up long term and both can have the case made for them being the best and most important position players currently on the team. In a perfect world the team finds a way to keep all of their future free agents allowing us as fans to only watch them play here for a long time moving forward. But this is not a video game and we all knew that inevitably names we do not want to see leave will have to do just that. 

What it will take to land Correa with a long term deal is so unknown, more-so than Springer given his age when he will hit free agency. If his best case scenario plays out in the next two seasons, we are probably looking once again at a deal that lands somewhere between seven and ten years at a number that should hit 300 million or more. If Correa is hitting the market with that sort of asking price, you know how this goes, his days in Houston will be done.

But if the best of his best case scenarios do not play out perfectly for his free agency, would a deal somewhere between five and seven years be in play for a number somewhere between 100-200 million? There really is no way to get a clear grasp on what it could take to keep him around long-term. If you are on the side of not wanting to see him go, you hope that all of the uncertainty that could greet Correa on the market spurs action on his side to talk about an extension either during the upcoming season or shortly after it ends. If the uncertainty of all of it has him wanting to guarantee himself a new deal sooner rather than later, maybe a deal with some benefits for both sides comes into play. If I were advising Correa on what he should do, I would implore him to approach the Astros now to open up talks on a potential deal. If I were to tell you that you could sign him tomorrow to a five year extension that begins next season, giving you four more potential seasons of control beyond his last year of arbitration that lands around 125 million dollars in total value with incentives in place to push the number higher, would you say no? I suspect most of you, like the Astros would sign up for that deal. While he might be willing to lock into a deal like that now, that gives him a guaranteed average annual value at 25 million a year, putting him five million more on a yearly average than what Xander Bogaerts got from the Red Sox a year ago, a deal at that low of an AAV will undoubtably come with opt-out clauses for the player at some point during the length of the deal. If I am James Click or Jim Crane, I would not have an issue with a deal including such options, preferably having those out clauses coming after years three and four of the deal, giving the Astros a guarantee of two extra years of player control, giving him a chance to go back on the market again before he turns 30 if his value shoots up even more. That type of deal truly might be a win-win for the Astros and Correa at this moment with all of the uncertainties I have gone through above. It takes two to tango and we will all be keeping an eye on how this goes. If the team tries to get something done with him after this year and the talks do not go anywhere, the team will have to look into trading him if they can get a big enough return that will help replenish a system that is has been picked through in trades over the last few years.

Trading him with just one year left of control after 2020 would likely prove to be more difficult than it should, given a market that is flush in each of the next few years in the infield. When moving a talent like Correa, even with his injury concerns, would have to land you at least two very significant prospects for the return to be worthy of moving on. You cannot move a player like Carlos even with the fears of him walking with the window you are in. The Astros are going to be real World Series contenders in each of the next two seasons and for many more seasons moving forward, but your chances only increase by having him on your team these next couple of seasons, rather than shipping him off with your long-term spending being the motivating factor for doing so. Not many teams get to the level the Astros are still currently at and when they do, it is rare for their windows to remain open as long as the Astros window has been and will continue to be moving forward. This is why a GM gets paid the big bucks and what James Click does with Correa might define his legacy as the man in charge in Houston more than any other move he will ever make. The last thing and anyone in the franchise want to see is for Correa to leave and reach his massive potential for someone else, instead of doing it here.

Finally, the Correa portion of this blog post is done. I did not plan on it going that long, but with so many layers to the Astros future riding on this decision, going through it all had to be done. To the final two guys that will be free agents after the 2021 season we go.

Lance McCullers Jr.

Like Correa, games being played this season will play a huge role in what McCullers makes once his time to hit the market comes. Returning from Tommy John this season, all eyes will be on how he looks and how is body holds up, no matter how long this season goes. Like Carlos, injury concerns have plagued him so far in his big league career. Top of the rotation stuff, no doubt can be a one or a two on any staff when he is at his best. The hope remains of course that he shows that his body can hold up and that he can mature as a pitcher on the mound that one day puts him in the stratosphere of his current teammates, Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke. Until he puts together a full season with a big workload of 200 innings or more like a top of the rotation guy typically does, you cannot bank on it happening consistently until it actually does. He will become a free agent at the age of 28 and if he can make a huge leap forward over the next two seasons, he will be in line to get a very huge pay day when his time as a free agent comes. With his agent being Scott Boras, you know that if he booms over the next couple of seasons, keeping him around will cost you a lot of money down the road. For the Astros, McCullers being in a position to demand a huge deal after the 2021 season is all they want. If we get to that point and he is looking for a deal that is somewhere in the range of like four years and that pays him between 10 and 15 million dollars a season, that means his career has not taken that massive leap forward. That will not mean he has become a failure by any means, but it will likely tell the story that there is still worry about his health moving forward and his to pitch like a top end of the rotation guy than a guy that is better suited to be your three or four.

When looking for comps on McCullers and where he could be in terms of his deal as a free agent, I continue to find myself coming back to the deal that Zack Wheeler landed with the Phillies this past winter. 5 years, 118 million dollars is what the former Mets pitcher landed when he hit the market this winter, a very large number for a guy with a history very similar to McCullers. Wheeler, unlike Lance, at least showed in two different seasons that he could reach the 30 start plateau in a season, doing in 2014 and 2019.

Both guys have big stuff and a breaking ball that teams absolutely drool for, McCullers has the ability to put up a better season than Wheeler ever did over the next two seasons before his turn to get paid comes. No matter what happens for Lance on the mound over the next two seasons, there will be plenty of competition for his services once his free agency comes. While signing hitters more often provides security of what a player will give a team, pitching is always a place that will see players land far more than what their careers might say they are worth. You can have a career filled with injuries and potential never being completely met, if you have the sort of elite stuff that Lance has, you will always find far more teams than not that are willing to roll the dice on the always dangerous word, 'potential'.

With Greinke and Verlander only getting older as the seasons go by and with fewer years left in front of them than are behind them, keeping McCullers is massively important for many reasons for the franchise. The possibility is very real that after next season, the team very well could be without both Verlander and Greinke moving forward. While I will bet on one of those two being around longer than current deals guarantee they will be, you have to plan for all the possible scenarios, including life without those guys starting as soon as the 2022 season. The team needs McCullers to take his steps forward and give them every reason to pay the likely big number it will take to keep him, while also needing Jose Urquidy to cement himself as a guy you want in your rotation for years to come. What needs to happen even more than McCullers booming is Forrest Whitley living up to his hype and doing so no later than next season to give you comfort that you can rely on him for years to come. 

Navigating the waters for the Astros future in their rotation is a tricky task, like all of the other things we have gone into above, I feel safe in saying that if you want to keep McCullers for a lengthy period of time, start setting your mind of him requiring a deal that pays him close to if not slightly more than 20 million dollars a season. Average pitching these days gets guys typically no less than 10 million dollars a season and if McCullers shows that he can be counted on at the top of a rotation moving forward, the overall number will come in bigger than you think it might for a pitcher that might not have the overall body of work that says paying him huge money is what should be done. No team in baseball is ever going to be completely satisfied or comfortable with the price it takes to secure pitchers for the long-term, no matter who they are. 

Chris Devenski: 

One of the Astros better finds in recent years, landing in the system as a player to be named later in the deal that sent Brett Myers to the White Sox back in 2012, Devo boomed in a big way when he got the call to the show in 2016, following that up with a stellar 2017 season that led him to his one and only All-Star selection so far in his career. After those first two seasons, it looked like the Astros would one day be forced into paying him big money to keep him around long-term. Those days are long gone now and after two seasons that would qualify as 'bumpy' at best, Devo badly needs games to happen this season in hopes of pushing his career back in the direction of where it was in his first two seasons compared to where it is now. Not in danger to suddenly be out of work or struggling to find it if he was let go, but at a stage of his big league career where he has to be closer to his former self, than his current status has him if he wants to keep himself for guaranteed job security moving forward. Bottom line, the Astros need a big season out of Devo in 2020 and 2021 as much as he needs big seasons for himself. With the departure of Will Harris, somebody has to step up and fill the big shoes he left behind. If Devenski can be that guy, it is a huge win and brings massive stability to this Astros bullpen now, as well as in the future. The stuff is still there and this past winter he clearly showed up looking like a guy that had put in the work needed to get back to his All-Star form, arriving in camp much lighter and fitter than he ever had before. Best case scenario is that he forces the Astros or someone else to pay him an average of at least 5 million a season on what he will hope is a long-term deal, if he really gets back to his former status of being an elite back end of the bullpen arm, he could very well find himself landing a deal that pays him far more than five million a season when his free agency comes. Arbitration eligible for one more season after this year, the Astros will likely play it out and see if he can put together a solid two year run.

If you are still here with me after all these words, thank you as always for reading my thoughts that I sometimes go on and about when I get on a roll. I woke up at 1:45 this morning and could not fall back asleep and after my failed attempts to do so, I found myself our office at the radio station at 2:45 this morning, starting this journey down this long blog post. I have said it before and will say it again, the Astros are living in a world of having rich people problems, maybe than any other team before. Hitting on so many of their own guys, it allowed them to supplement their team so much, boosting them even higher than they had been before. As the years go buy and as players reach their turns to get paid, tough decisions have to be made, ones that can bring emotions into play for all of us. We all want to see all of these guys stick around forever for the team we love, but the harsh reality will always rear its head that you cannot afford to keep all of the players you love. The job James Click inherited is a great one, but one with more difficult decisions than any new GM has possibly had to face before. Had the fallout from the scandal not happened, a job of this level would have never come open without a scandal like theirs having come up. What Click does in the coming months will likely define how his Astros career will go, remember to give him a chance to navigate these choppy waters before you completely decide if he is the right guy for the job moving forward. Like we gave to Luhnow and Crane when he bought the team, put your trust in the fact that they have hired people that are clearly qualified for the jobs they have. 

I hope you and yours are healthy in this odd and scary moment we are all living in, and like all of you, I hope the escape the world of sports gives us all is coming sooner rather than later. Until than, thank you for your continued support of our station, stick with us and help pass the time by keeping it locked to SportsTalk 790 all day long. You of course can hear me every morning on The Sean Salisbury Show from 6-10am and you can reach me when not on the air on twitter by CLICKING HERE.