Another day closer to the 2020 season finally being here and another day for us to get ready for the wild sprint that this season will be. If you missed my first couple of blogs this week to get us ready for the season, you can find them below.
For The 2020 Astros, Losing Yordan Might Be Their Biggest Blow
My Top Ten 10 Players in the AL West Entering the 2020 Season
From a couple of weeks ago, here are my 2020 MLB Predictions
Today, we continue our look at the AL West before we move on to the American League and Major League Baseball, overall. In this short season of just sixty games, we should see teams more teams contend than we would have in a normal regular season. The Astros are looking to win the AL West for the fourth straight year and on paper, the competition to do it might be tougher than it has before. It takes a roster full of guys to win a division every single year with a cast of characters stepping up at different points of a season that nobody expects before a season starts. But in this weird year, one player stepping up big might matter more than any other season before and today we take a look at who I think is the biggest x-factor for each team in the race to win the American League West in 2020.
Houston Astros: SP Lance McCullers
Picking just one player as the definitive x-factor for a team this season is difficult, but when you run through the American League West, it might be easier to do than in any other division in Major League Baseball. Lance McCullers returns from Tommy John this season for the Astros and slots into the third spot in the rotation, a spot that his talent overall says he should always be able to fulfill. With the loss of Gerrit Cole to the Yankees and Wade Miley to the Reds, coupled with the unknown of Josh James in the rotation as well as the question of if Jose Urquidy will even pitch for the Astros this season, making McCullers the selection here is too easy. The Astros are banking on Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke doing what they always do, anchoring whatever staff they are on every single year. This year, more than any other, the Astros need another arm to really step up and nobody carries a bigger load on his shoulder than Lance McCullers.
If the worst case scenario hits and one of the top two in the rotation falls flat, the burden for McCullers to be great will rapidly grow. Until one of those two guys does just that, you cannot bet on it happening until we actually see it happen. The club does not need McCulllers to go out there and give you seven shutout innings every single time out on the mound, but if there is one thing they need more than anything else, it is consistency out of this electric arm. Command has been an issue for him in the past and there is no doubt that the rust will have to be knocked off as the season moves along, but if anyone doubts that this arm can pitch like an ace of any staff, I think they are forgetting just how lethal McCullers can be. If it is a season of ups and downs with Lance on the mound, Verlander and Greinke will truly have to be special almost every single time they get the ball.
Oakland A's: SP Frankie Montas
As is the case with most teams that have hopes to contend, a starting pitcher on their staff will likely have to be their biggest x-factor for their team to win. With this Oakland club, when you play the on paper game, you once again think, how will this club have enough pitching to get over the top. Montas has an electric arm and before his PED suspension a year ago, was pitching at the level of an ace of any starting staff. He, like Lance McCullers, does not have a long track record of pitching at a top level consistently and has never made more than sixteen starts in a regular season. While he will not be able to pitch more than that this year, if he returns and pitches to the level he did before the suspension last season, he might give Oakland the true ace that they have been missing on their staff for years now.
Los Angeles Angels: SP/DH Shohei Ohtani
There might not be one player more intriguing in all of Major League Baseball than Shohei Ohtani. The dude is a flat out freak and can do things that baseball has not seen in a very long time. The Angels pitching staff still does not look wonderful on paper and what they will get out of him on the mound this season is a complete unknown as he returns from Tommy John. The club is said to be set on pitching him once a week, going with a six man rotation for first year manager Joe Maddon. Like McCullers, there will be rust, but it is a safe bet that there will also be plenty of signs of brilliance along the way. His stuff is incredible and in his brief run as a starting pitcher in his rookie year, it is hard to imagine that he does not contend for a Cy Young in any season that he stays healthy. If he is great this season, the Angels finally have the ace they have been missing from their staff for years. If his command is an issue and the results are not there, you wonder if they consider dialing back how much they use him on the mound in this weird year. At the plate, you know that you are getting a really great, game changing type of talent that still has plenty of room to get better, and he has already been pretty darn good. No player in baseball provides more potential for a club than Ohtani overall and when he really puts it all together in a season, it is scary to think about just how good he might be.
Texas Rangers: SP Corey Kluber
The Rangers surprised many by being the team that took the gamble on Kluber when they traded for him over the winter. The two-time AL Cy Young Award winner had one of the best runs a pitcher has had in recent years between 2013 and 2018 for Cleveland and if he pitches close to any of those great years he had, the Rangers gamble on him will look really smart. Kluber however is about as big of an unknown as any player in baseball right now. In 2018, after years of massive amounts of innings on his arm, the signs were there that he was declining rapidly, despite putting up great numbers still overall. It all came to a head in 2019, injuries ruining his season, while putting up brutal numbers in his limited amount of work. For years his velocity has ticked in the wrong direction and now at the age of 34, it is worthy of questioning that he can ever completely get back to his old form. If he pitches like an ace and the Rangers get similar seasons out of Mike Minor and Lance Lynn that they got in 2019, they have the kind of pitching staff that can keep them in the race all season long.
Seattle Mariners: Pick a Player
No disrespect to the Mariners or their fans, this team is set to stink again and has a real chance to contend for the spot of being the worst team in baseball this year and for a few more years moving forward. For the future of their franchise, they would probably put someone like Mitch Haniger down as their x-factor, but it has nothing to do with them winning games, but he is still hurt and it does not appear that he even plays this season. If at some point he ever returns to the field and plays like he did in 2018, he is the type of player that you might be able to move and get a decent package for in return. The Mariners just have to hope that any player they have that will not be part of their future booms and they can move them for something that helps them down the road. For this season, their eyes will be focused on Shed Long, who made his big league debut a year ago. He is probably the most intriguing young player the franchise has at the moment.
Honorable Mention:
Houston Astros: OF/1B Kyle Tucker
2020 was always set to be a pivotal season for Kyle Tucker and even in this short season, that does not change. While the club does not need him to be one of their best hitters to win, they need to see that he can back up the positive signs he showed at the big league level in 2019 for his future with the club moving forward. While you still will not be able to completely project his future in this shortened season given the lack of guarantees and playing time for any player, if the club is without Yordan Alvarez for some or all of this season, Tucker will have to capitalize on much more playing time than both he and the club might have expected he would get this season. With all three of the Astros regulars in the outfield set to hit the free agent market this winter, Tucker is going to get his first full run in the outfield on an everyday basis in 2021, but for this season, he will need to show that he can be trusted at any spot in the outfield, and possibly as a potential option at first base for this club moving forward.
Oakland A's: SP Sean Manaea
For Oakland, everything comes back to the rotation and Manaea needs to boom for this club to avoid their typical slow starts. The mass numbers in his career say he is pretty darn good and in his five starts last season after returning from shoulder surgery, he showed that there might still be more growth to come for the Oakland southpaw. He might not have the arsenal that scares you as an opponent, but in their home ballpark, he is the type of pitcher that can put up really good numbers and help lead a staff all season long.
Los Angeles Angels: SP Julio Teheran
The Angels landed Teheran in the winter on a one year deal, hoping that he would get back to his old form that had him as one of the more intriguing young arms in the early years of his big league career. The two-time NL All-Star with Atlanta was always pretty durable overall in his time with the Braves, even if there were arm concerns that seemed to always pop up, making at least thirty starts in each of the last seven seasons. The issue with Teheran has been that his stuff has continued to diminish as the years have gone by and as the seasons moved into the later months, he would pitch his way out of being trusted for a contending club. The Angels cannot bank on him being the ace of a staff, but if he bottles it together for a few months, he could be the first reliable starter the club has had in years.
Texas Rangers: OF Joey Gallo
Early in 2019 he looked like he might be taking a huge step forward when it comes to simply making more contact than he ever had before. Injuries popped up, crushing his hot start to the season, if he comes back this year and finds a way to be a guy that hits around .250, the Rangers should be very pleased about his potential moving forward. The track record says it is home run or strikeout for this slugger and the safe bet is that he will forever be that type of player for whoever he is playing for.
Seattle Mariners: Pick a Player
Sorry Mariners fans, you knew this was coming again.
The AL West race should be more fun than it has been for years now and those guys above stand out for me as the biggest x-factor for each club in this division in 2020. Check back here tomorrow for another blog to get us all ready for this season and of course tune in every morning to The Sean Salisbury Show from 6-10am where you can hear me talking about Houston sports. You can find me on twitter by CLICKING HERE.