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Texans' Mills' numbers stack up favorably to other rookie QBs

There’s a lot of chatter about Davis Mills and the Houston Texans after they soundly beat the Los Angeles Chargers, 41-29 on Sunday afternoon at NRG Stadium. There are plenty of good things to discuss, but we’ll start by focusing on Mills for now. 

In the win, Mills and the offense generated four touchdowns, attempted two field goals and punted only once. Mills completed 21 of 27 passes for 254 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. He was sacked only once - that sack was on him by the way. (It came early in the game and the Chargers only rushed three, as the pocket was collapsing at his back, he should have stepped up in the pocket to either make a throw or take advantage of the huge running lane he was staring at. He was also hit only two times in the game by a weakened Chargers defense (no edge rushing maniac Joey Bosa or top level safety Derwin James).

So now let’s take a look at Mills against the other four rookie quarterbacks that are starters and how he’s performed in his seven starts since he and the team flew back from that disaster of an afternoon in Buffalo. In case you forgot, the weather was terrible and Mills, who threw for 61 net yards, and the offense were worse, getting shut out 40-0.

Since then things have gone remarkably well and have only been getting better for Mills. 

  • In 5 of his last 7 starts, he’s produced a passer rating of 92.3 or better, topped by two performances at 130.6 or better
  • He’s thrown for 300 yards three times with 10 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions
  • He’s completed 70% of his passes in 4 of his last 7 starts

Here are his overall numbers in his last 7 starts:

  • 175 completion on 248 attempts (70.6% completion)
  • 1,794 yards with 10 TD & 4 INT (256.3 yards per game)
  • 97.7 passer rating

Among the rookie quarterbacks that have been regular starters this season, Mac Jones, Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Justin Fields, here’s how Mills stacks up statistically:

He’s first in passer rating (97.7) and in yards passing per game (256.3) by a lot. Mills and Mac Jones are also head and shoulders above the other three rookie quarterbacks. Jones is also trending down, while Mills is trending up. Though to be fair, Mills is playing with far less pressure on him every week with the situation the Texans are in as compared to Jones who is trying to win a division and trying to claim a playoff berth.

Now how does Mills statistically up league-wide over his last seven starts (since week 5):

Mills is 3rd in completion percentage and he’s 5th best in interception percentage

How about 9th in passer rating for Mills, just below Justin Herbert and just above Josh Allen.

Something to remember, Mills has some impressive numbers included in there that came rather inauspiciously - during the 4th quarter against the Rams. The Texans started the 4th period down 38-0 and the Rams had pulled many starters at that point. Mills went 18-of-23 passing for 220 yards and 2 touchdowns in the final period in that game. He was 11-of-15 for 90 yards with an interception in the first three quarters against the Rams’ starters.

More than just the numbers, his ability to truly command the offense now as opposed to when his playing time began has been enhanced tremendously. Checking out of plays based on what he sees from the defense, then communicating and executing that is a must for a successful NFL quarterback. That is happening now.

Mills and others noted as much after the win on Sunday. 

Here’s some film breakdown from Mark Schofield as part of his weekly ‘Three Throws’ twitter series. (He also has an entire write-up of Mills HERE).

This is what wide receiver Chris Conley said about the 41-yard touchdown catch that he hauled in. 

“The play, we were in our two-minute package, and we were on the ball. Really the concept of that play to the front side is you have a go route on the outside to really clear things out for the tight end on the inside who is running about a ten-yard out. But, like I said, the film study this week, we knew they liked to slow play it on the outside. If we wanted to take a shot, we could take a shot and Davis recognized that. He recognized they were slow playing it and the corner wasn't really getting out and he gave me a shot on a play that wasn't necessarily called that way, we were able to make a big play for six. But on that note, Davis played exceptionally well today. He's been taking coaching really well. He's gone and he's continued to work at things and he's not let setbacks really deter him or change his mind about how he's going to play. He's gone out and played aggressive and that's what we asked him to do is just keep taking coaching and get better and he's been doing that.”

Los Angeles Chargers v Houston Texans

Photo: Getty Images

Here’s what Mills said when he met with the media just a few minutes later, ”At that point just based on the study during the week, I knew kind of what defenses they were primarily running in that two-minute drill. And when we called that play, it's not fully intended to get the ball out to Chris, but like I've kind of been talking about the past couple of weeks and earlier in the season, we were just trying to find ways organically within the offense to make some big plays. I was able to see that safety into the boundary kind of flatfooted, rolled down, and Chris was able to run by his guy and I was able to throw it up and gave him a chance. And he made a really good play.”

Similarly, the touchdown pass to rookie Nico Collins wasn’t necessarily designed to go that way, especially late in the game with the Texans trying to bleed off more clock. Mills after the game, “So we were in four-minute mode there. Two plays previously we called the same play. It was a run play by design with kind of tagged route on the backside where if I see Nico can win on his route, I can trust him and get him the ball. We ended up coming back to that same play on Nico's touchdown. I saw the safety was kind of in the middle of the field. He had some space out there and I don't get yelled at because it wasn't an incompletion, but we were trying to burn some clock on the four-minute there, and I trusted Nico to win on his route and he was able to get his first touchdown. So it was pretty cool.”

Los Angeles Chargers v Houston Texans

Photo: Getty Images

Collins spoke Monday about the play, “(Davis) Mills found me on a slant, great matchup. He trusted me, coaches trusted me and I went out and made a play for the team. It’s more just like a coverage thing. They pretty much load the box, and it’s a matchup outside (where) if the QB likes it, he can take it. It’s an option. But Davis (Mills), he trusted the process in seeing what the defense gave him and he went out there and made a play. That’s all that went into it, nothing crazy at all.”

Exactly, it might be getting closer to the time where people stop thinking it’s crazy that a third round pick that entered the draft early might be capable of success at the NFL level.

The Texans play at San Francisco in their road finale on January 2, before closing the season out at home on January 9 against the Tennessee.

Los Angeles Chargers v Houston Texans

Photo: Getty Images


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