The playoffs begin on Friday. By Sunday, four teams will be going home. Heck it could happen before Saturday is done. The new format has 8 teams battling in a brief best-of-3 wild card series - with all the game at the site of the better seed. Here's my best guess on the four teams that'll advance to their respective league's division series.
(6) Phillies at (3) Cardinals (Winner faces Braves in NLDS)
The Phillies really came together when they told manager Joe Girardi to hit the road. They then went 65-46 under interim manager Rob Thomson. But their final six weeks included a series loss to Arizona, getting swept by the Giants and Cubs and a finishing kick of just seven wins in their last 20 games. I think the Cardinals are beatable, but the Phillies won't be the team to do it. Cardinals lean heavily on Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, but even if they falter, their somewhat surprising starting staff can get the job done. Jose Quintana, Miles Mikolas and Adam Wainwright (if needed) will do their part to push the Cardinals through. Cards in 2.
(5) Padres at (4) Mets (Winner faces Dodgers in NLDS)
Buck Showalter is sure trying hard to make me reconsider the Mets winning this series quickly & easily by potentially holding out Jacob DeGrom until game three, like something is wrong with taking a 2-0 lead in a best-of-3 series - which of course means it's over! The Mets pitching behind those two aces should be able to handle the Padres, who were in credibly reliant on likely NL MVP runner-up Manny Machado. The Padres' season feels disappointing, but they might be the second-best team in the wild card round. But playing the Mets will end their season. Mets in 2.
(6) Rays at (3) Guardians (Winner faces Yankees in ALDS)
I think the Rays are the popular team that will pull the upset in the wild card round. I agree, they have the best shot to do it with the Guardians winning a division with no teams - other than them - above .500. But give the Guardians some credit, they went 46-26 after the all-star break, which was better than every team in the AL - other than the Astros, of course. Their starting pitching is excellent and their closer was arguably the best in the league. The Rays seemed to be playing for the six seed and this matchup intentionally over the last few weeks of the season. Well they got it and I think with McClanahan struggling down the stretch and their offense being among the league's poorest, I think their season ends in Cleveland. Guardians in 3.
(5) Mariners at (4) Blue Jays (Winner faces Astros in ALDS)
Best matchup of the wild card round. The Blue Jays are anchored by their top starters, including the 2nd best starting pitcher in the league, Alek Manoah. He might not earn a single first place vote for Cy Young, but neither will anyone other than the Astros Justin Verlander. Manoah has been downright dominant down the stretch and opening the series with him on the hill in Toronto, should put the Blue Jays in good position. The Mariners just feel like they are a year away. They've got the amazing rookie (Julio Rodriguez), they went out at the deadline and got the best starting pitcher available (Luis Castillo) and they ended their 20-plus year playoff drought. They'll push the Jays, but their fans will have to wait at least one more year to see their team - at home - in the playoffs. Jays in 3.
*side note: really wish these series were five games, but understand that's not realistic with four division winners sitting around waiting for an opponent to face!