During the calendar year, any seasoned sports fan knows what to expect depending on the month.¹ The Super Bowl is in February, baseball season starts at the beginning of April, the NBA Finals are in June, and in July, the sports calendar lands where we are now- the NBA draft. This particular draft is unlike any other in major sports. The vast majority of the time, true impact prospects can dry up within the first couple of picks. Because of this, only a handful of teams and their fan bases get truly caught up in the draft and lottery madness, while the rest look forward to free agency and the trade market.
Throughout the years, Houston Rockets fans have been much more of the latter. Rather than treating first round draft picks as future franchise building blocks, longtime former Rockets GM Daryl Morey preferred utilizing them as trade chips to acquire established star-level NBA talent. For better or worse, the Rockets did not select a single player in the first-round of the NBA draft in Morey's final five years as GM.
Last fall, Morey stepped down, and there's a new era of Rockets basketball as GM Rafael Stone helms his first draft. Following a nervous draft lottery last month where the team's pick could have tumbled all the way to 18th, the Rockets now fortuitously find themselves with the number two overall pick. This year's draft is considered very top heavy, and the Rockets, of course, are in the mix to nab a potential franchise-changing player. The question becomes of course, which of the top-level prospects should the Rockets choose? Let us discuss.
¹pandemic-induced irregularities notwithstanding
Cade Cunningham - 19 - PG - Oklahoma State
6'8" 220 lbs.
Cade Cunningham is far and away considered the favorite to go #1 overall, so we won't spend much time on him here. He is considered a jack-of-all trades. He's got size & length, he can score from anywhere, has a high basketball IQ, and has the potential to guard 1-5. If he somehow fell to the Rockets, they would snap him up in a heartbeat.
Jalen Green - 19 - SG - NBA G League Ignite
6'5" 180 lbs.
Jalen Green is a smooth, explosive athlete with all of the tools you want in a modern NBA shooting-guard. A five-star recruit coming out of high school, he turned down the likes of Memphis, Oregon, and Auburn and decided to sign a one-year, $500,000 contract to play with the NBA G League's Ignite.² This makes him a unique prospect, as he went up against grown men who are professionals, rather than going through a college schedule which is going to have its share of cupcakes. This also allows us to glean a little bit more from his shooting percentages, as we're talking about teams that run real NBA offenses and use the true NBA three-point line.
Jalen Green has it all when it comes to what you'd want in a modern NBA shooting guard. He can drive to the basket, has good handles, can make a step-back (or step-right) three, and has exceptional court vision. His explosiveness to the basket will already be amongst the elite in the NBA the second he steps foot on the floor. Some have compared him to Zach LaVine as far as athleticism, and while I'm not just yet willing to go that far, it's not the craziest comparison I've ever heard.
What also impresses me about Jalen Green is his willingness to improve. Now, any interview can be taken with a grain of salt because actions speak louder than words, but Green seems genuinely in love with basketball and striving to improve every day. He's talked about watching the likes of Jordan and Kobe to take away from their game and improve. He knows the knock on him is his defense, and he's been trying to improve that as well. While Green is certainly unpolished, the flashes of potential are mesmerizing and should be enough to make any Rockets fan salivate.
²The NBA decided in 2018 to offer professional contracts to elite-level prospects, and Green will be among the first crop of top prospects to be selected in the draft from this system
Evan Mobley - 20 - PF/C - USC
7'0" 215 lbs.
Evan Mobley is about as credentialed as a pro prospect as you'll see. In one season at USC he was Pac-12 Player of the Year, the Pac-12 Defensive player of the year, Pac-12 Freshman of the year, and a consensus 2nd-team All-American. He stands with Anthony Davis as the only two players to win those three major conference awards in a single season. He was a huge part of a USC Trojan team that made the Elite Eight and was one of the most ferocious defensive teams in the nation. Scouts have said that in any other year he'd be the unquestioned #1 pick.
The hallmark of Mobley's game is what he can do defensively. For his size and length he is an incredibly fluid athlete, and is a prototypical big man for today's NBA. He can guard big men one-on one, is an excellent help defender, is extremely positionally intelligent in pick-and-roll coverages, and can guard smaller guys out on the perimeter if he's switched out. I think he has an extremely high floor because of what he brings defensively. Even if an offensive game never develops (which I think it will), he will be extremely valuable as a paint protector and anchor of a top defense.
Offensively, he could use a bit of polish, but this is often the case with big men coming into the draft, as they've just been able to dominate with their size their whole basketball lives. While Mobley doesn't have the complete package offensively, he has shown the ability to knock down the occasional hook shot and midrange jumper, and he's already a devastating roll man that can dive to the basket and finish with ease, or go over the top for an alley-oop dunk. Picturing Mobley diving to the basket and throwing down oop after oop from Kevin Porter, Jr. is a tantalizing prospect.
The Decision
The Rockets and Rafael Stone have an extremely difficult decision on their hands. The hometown hoopers must choose wisely, because rare is the case where all or most of the top draft picks become long-term success stories. A hit on this decision could mean a prosperous run of basketball for years to come, and a miss will just mean that much more pain and suffering from a fan base that has been thirsting for its first taste of championship success in almost 30 years.
If I were the Rockets, I would select Jalen Green. This is difficult because I would characterize Evan Mobley as a cant-miss prospect in the sense that he may not turn into an NBA superstar, but you are all but guaranteed someone who will be a solid starter in the NBA for years to come. To me Mobley has the higher floor, but the ceiling is highest with Green. Green is such an explosive athlete and already posses so many special offensive tools that you just can't teach. If the desire and fire is inside him, he can also become a great two-way player as well.
In the end, the Rockets can't go wrong with whomever they pick. When they won the lottery and got the #2 pick, they won hope. Whichever top prospect they select, it's going to be an extremely fun upcoming Rockets season watching them develop with the likes of Kevin Porter, Jr., Christian Wood, and Jae'Sean Tate. It's a new era of Rockets basketball, and hopefully it's the start of something great.