Despite all the issues the Houston Astros have had this season, their pitching has been as dominant as they come. At this point in the season, the Astros lead all of baseball in lowest team ERA at 3.23, just ahead of the Twins' 3.40 ERA.
And while everyone knows you have to score runs to wins MLB games, this stat is pretty staggering when it comes to the Astros:
- When the Astros score 3 runs or less, they're 4-16
- When the Astros score 4 runs or more, they're 24-5
That means the benchmark for the Astros is scoring at least four runs. When they score four runs or more, they more often than not, result in wins. When they score three runs or less, the majority of time it's a loss. Again, not breaking big news here, but it's fascinating that's the line of a threshold the Astros offense needs to hit night in and night out. It's reminiscent of the old Rule of 71 in college basketball - the rule says that the first team to score 71 points in a game will win.
By comparison, the Toronto Blue Jays have eleven games this season where they've scored four runs or more, and lost the game.
The tough part is, over half the Astros lineup is batting sub .250 including Jose Altuve, Jeremy Pena, Jose Abreu, Alex Bregman, Chas McCormick, Martin Maldonado and Yanier Diaz.
And the Astros are lacking in the power department - only two Astros hitters have seven or more homeruns this season: Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. Compare that to the Tampa Bay Rays lineup where eleven of their batters have hit at least seven homeruns or more.