This sixty game season in Major League Baseball has always been destined to be odd. It has always been set up for bad baseball. It has always been set up to be very unpredictable. The 2020 season has always been set up to be what 2020 has been for the entire world...difficult.
Outside of a lack of consistency when it comes to how Summer Camp is working for the Astros, there have been more good things overall than bad things so far for the club. Justin Verlander has been able to rehab his groin after surgery and after going through three innings of work in the intrasquad game last week, it appears that he is ready to go for the Astros in next Friday's opener against Seattle at Minute Maid Park. Zack Greinke has finally gotten work against hitters and everything we heard about that work was positive. Same can be said for Lance McCullers after his work in the intrasquad game against Verlander last week as well. The core of the position players have been at the ballpark and getting their work in and there has been nothing overall to report in terms of health concerns for the club as they grind their way towards this odd season.
When we go to the bad, the club, like many others across the league, have dealt with testing issues already, canceling workouts, while exposure to someone on the pitching side of things, has already forced the entire pitching staff to miss a day of work as well. To state it again, 2020 has sucked and so far, navigating through this makeshift Summer Camp has been no cakewalk for this Astros club. It brings into question how ready players will be when things get going next week and absolutely makes you wonder how good the quality of the games will be early on given how difficult it has already been to get in the proper amount of work that you need to prepare for real games being played. The biggest concern that has been lingering for over a week now has been the players that have not yet been in the Astros camp to prepare for this season and to make it worse, the club not being allowed to disclose the reasons why, has amped up some of the concerns.
To this point, there has been no Yordan Alvarez, no Jose Urquidy, no Josh James and no Joe Smith for the Astros in their Summer Camp. While it appears that good news for Josh James is coming this week, as Steve Sparks told us on 790 on Monday morning that he believes Josh will be in camp this week and that he has not been away from the club for a reason that anyone should worry, right now there is not much reason to feel great about the other three guys suddenly showing up. We know that Joe Smith is worried about health concerns for he and his family, something that nobody should blame a player for having and right now, it feels like the safe assumption to make is that he will not be with the club this season. While it is completely understandable and should not be criticized if staying away is what he wants to do, on the field, it absolutely will hurt this Astros club. He was a guy that you were counting on towards the back end of your bullpen to help fill the void left behind following the loss of Will Harris in free agency over the winter.
So we get to the latest news that came out this morning about Yordan Alvarez and Jose Urquidy, two players that are set to play a massive role on this 2020 Astros club.
What this means exactly, we do not know outside of what the tweet from Chandler Rome says. Both players, as of today, are on the ten-day injured list moving forward. The club is not allowed to give out details as to why and unless one of them speaks publicly about it, we will not likely know anything about it anytime soon. This could mean that there is a real chance they are not playing this season. This could mean that they are, but given the short window now to get ready for the season, they will need time working with the taxi-squad and placing them on the injured list now, allows you to fill their spots with other players early on in the season until they are ready to hit the field. We have heard of course that both players have conditions that are keeping them from reporting to the field and maybe that just means they are awaiting approval from the league to show up and not that they are staying away because they do not want to play this season.
No matter the reason, whether it is a justified personal reason for not being there or the league not allowing them to show up for a medical condition that we do not know about, not having those two players on the field this season would absolutely hurt. Urquidy has been set to be the fourth man in the Astros rotation and really be the guy that brings some stability behind the top three, while giving some protection to Lance McCullers if he has some rust to knock off after finally returning from Tommy John Surgery. With it being a short season this year, clubs could survive with just four solid options in their rotations, but still, despite his success in the postseason and late in the regular season, there is still some unknown that comes with having Urquidy in your rotation as the fourth guy. If he is not able to pitch this season, the unknowns ramp up and Josh James and others have to step up and one guy really has to come out and surprise, picking up a big workload. While it is probably the logical and easy choice to put Urquidy down as the bigger blow if they do not have him this season, when debating who is more important to this club between he and Yordan, I am sitting here now thinking the opposite and that not having Alvarez is the bigger blow to this club.
The Astros are set-up far better than most teams to handle the loss of players at any spot on their roster in 2020. And while losing a bat is far easier for this club than losing an arm in the rotation is, you can make the argument that if they do not have Yordan on the field this season, they are possibly losing their best bat in a lineup filled with perennial All-Stars and future hall of fame hitters. They will still mash without him, yes. But the stability of this lineup is suddenly worse if you do not have him and no matter how you piece things together to fill his potential void, it is unlikely you have a group of players match what he is expected and projected to do at the plate for this club.
When running through the numbers last season, here is what the club did at the plate before his debut and after he joined the club. He made his debut in 2019 on the ninth of June against the Baltimore Orioles.
Before Yordan's Debut:
Games: 66
Record: 44-22
BA: .268
HR: 105
Runs Scored: 338
Runs Per Game: 5.1
OBP: .341
SLG: .473
OPS: .814
After Yordan's Debut:
Games: 96
Record: 63-33
BA: .278
HR: 183
Runs Scored: 582
Runs Per Game: 6.1
OBP: .360
SLG: .511
OPS: .870
While you can go back and pick apart the stats and reasons for the spike in the numbers after his arrival, the core of my belief as to why losing him would be the much bigger blow is simply just how lethal he is. He brought a different dynamic to the offense than the team has probably ever had and we are talking about a team that has been on a pretty historical offensive run now for years. Yordan changes the way opponents attack the Astros lineup on a nightly basis. Not only does he mash the ball out of the park at an alarming rate, he does this while also being as disciplined as they come, oh and he also showed that he is not just a power first hitter, this is a guy that just flat-out hits anything you throw at him. He had as many multi-hit games as he did hitless games last season after his debut for the big league club. The protection he provides in the four or five hole is massive, his presence alone helps the other lethal Astros hitters to see better pitches than what they might see when he is not in there. Sure, early in the season in 2019 it is easy to see why the overall numbers for the club were not as great as they were after he arrived. Jose Altuve was really bad early in the year despite hitting a bunch of home runs and after some time away due to injury, he came back and hit like Jose Altuve does. Yuli Gurriel was off to a brutal start in 2019 and after Yordan arrived, he went all scorched earth on the baseball world. And while the likes of those two guys hitting their strides helped boost the numbers, the same can be said for Alex Bregman after another slow start as well, the addition for Yordan to the lineup might have helped those guys get going more than any of us might know.
If the Astros are without their biggest slugger in 2020, they will survive and will still crush pitchers on a regular basis, but what happens if others take a step-back from what they did a season ago. Simply put, not having Alvarez in the lineup leaves less margin for error for the other bats that Dusty Baker plugs into the lineup on a nightly basis. Josh Reddick would have to play more and will have to be better than he was a year ago. Yuli Gurriel will have to show that his insane last few months were not a fluke and that the advanced numbers on him are something that are of no concern. Kyle Tucker has been set to be a key piece for this club, but the Astros this season have not been sitting there needing him to mash to win games this year. While they still do not necessarily need just that from him this year, they absolutely cannot live with him struggling if they do not have Yordan. The offense will go as far as the big boys will take them. Springer, Altuve, Brantley, Gurriel and Correa will have to play to what their numbers say they always will. But as we sit here today, I find myself worried that losing Yordan Alvarez this season could be the biggest blow to the Astros not winning it all in this very odd 2020 season. Here is to hoping everything goes well and he is able to get on the field this season for the team we all love.
As always, thanks for taking a few minutes to read my thoughts here on the blog. You can find me on Twitter by CLICKING HERE and you can hear me every morning from 6-10am on The Sean Salisbury Show.